Wiley 978-0-470-52172-4 Datasheet

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E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 1
1
CHAPTER
The Sound of Inevitability
There have been very few fundamental changes in computing.
On the surface, that may sound like the statement of a madman,
or perhaps at least someone from an alt ernate universe. Nonethe-
less, it is true.
Sure there have been, are, and will likely continue to be a nearly
incomprehensible fire hose of particular changes, some rather fla-
shy in and of themselves. Simple things like pocket-sized flash drives
that store more than the corporate mainframes of 30 years ago, or
perhaps ubiquitous mobile devices for everything from the mun-
danely practical—e-mail, calendars, and contacts—to the cheerfully
sublime. Much more complex developments such as the open
source movement; the advent of re lational da tabases; and the rise
(and fall) of whole operating systems and their surrounding ecosys-
tems, even those whose perpetual dominance once seemed assured
(how many desktop machines ar e running CP/M these days?).
These have come and gone, perhaps lingering in some niche, for-
gotten by all but a few fanatical devotees.
But truly fundamental change—the tectonic s hift that literally
changes our landscape—happens only once in a long while, per-
haps every ten or more years, even in the computing business. Fun-
damental change of this magnitude requires a number of smaller
innovations to pile up until a true nexus is reached, and we all start
marching down a different road.
Of course, as historians are fond of lecturing the rest of us mere
mortals, these sort of fundamental changes are nearly impossible to
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Summary of Contents

Page 1 - COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 11CHAPTERThe Sound of InevitabilityThere have been very few fundamental changes in computing.On the surface, that may sound like

Page 2 - 2 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 10endowed their invention with the ability to self-organize, to seekout alternate routes for traffic, to adapt to all sorts of un

Page 3 - The Sound of Inevitability 3

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 11Before we con tinue in this narrative, let us take a step back toconsider two more constants in computing—the drive for ever-i

Page 4 - 4 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 12began to reach their practical limit for scaling individual executionunits (which came t o be known as ‘‘cores’’). In fact, th

Page 5 - A Persistent Vision

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 13this (meaning the plain label, pure commodity computing parts)for problems that ‘‘we really care about’’?The a nswers to that

Page 6 - Three Ages of Computing

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 14In order to save as much money as possible, the infrastructurewoul d be constructed out of commodity components, out of‘‘chea

Page 7 - Three Ages of Computing 7

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 15services exposed for calling from outside, in 2006 Amazon began tooffer basic computing resources: computing, storage, and net

Page 8 - 8 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 16Commodity Hardware. In the three basic areas of computingcomponents—chips (processors, memory, etc.), storage(mostly disc dri

Page 9 - Three Ages of Computing 9

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 17dedicated to one or two specific applications). It is the abilityto operate particular resources (such as computers, networks,a

Page 10 - 10 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 18Data Storage Architect ures. The first two ages of computingwere very much dominated (for very good reasons) by thedatabase sy

Page 11 - Three Ages of Computing 11

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 19including many who thought that the whole concept wouldsimply fizzle out for any of a numb er of rea sons—withinthe first nine m

Page 12 - 12 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 2recognizewhileweareinthemiddleofthem,evenastheyloomimminently.When researchers at the University of Pennsylvania were fever-ish

Page 13 - Three Ages of Computing 13

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 20After all, this is what our cultures now expect; this is what peopledemand; this is how people interact.To recap, there have b

Page 14 - 14 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 21versions of servers, and configurations of versions of serversthat populate the typical, pre-cloud datacenter, even the larg-es

Page 15 - Broad Enablers

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 22(where appropriate) with private clouds built and operated on thesame cloud computing principles. Some organizations will crea

Page 16 - 16 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 23future, planned excelsior-class mainframes would be delivered earlyand often to handle growth.‘‘See, we can handle any need yo

Page 17 - Broad Enablers 17

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 24

Page 18 - 18 The Sound of Inevitability

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 3traditional (local, general purpose, print, widely circulated) newspa-per. While this eventuality may be stayed—perhaps for qui

Page 19 - Broad Enablers 19

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 4fairly recognizable—particularly national/international propert iessuch as the Wall Street Journal and the previously mentioned

Page 20 - Big Contributions

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 5presume has many answers: What sort of business models areenabled by all of this, and how do we get there?Before we leave thi s

Page 21 - Limitations

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 6simply means the process of approaching a particular limit, fromwherever you started to the limit itself. In the case of the co

Page 22 - Back to the Future?

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 7First AgeThink about the role of computing within the typical organizationprior to the widespread adoption of the Internet. The

Page 23 - E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 23

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 8Technologies such as parallel computing, artificial intelligence,and even semantic processing remaine d exoti c too ls that were

Page 24 - E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 24

E1C01 02/21/2010 Page 9file transfers, smtp for e-mail, http for web content) built on top ofthis newly resilient foundation, then to a whole ecosystem

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